Canada’s recent affordability improvements feel increasingly fragile as we see new home construction—especially for ownership housing—continue to slow. As someone who has helped clients navigate both commercial and residential markets across Alberta, I’m watching these trends closely. The latest projections indicate we’ll need between 417,000 and 469,000 housing starts each year to bring affordability back to pre-pandemic levels by 2036. Yet, the supply gap remains stubbornly unchanged.
What stands out in today’s market is that most of the new supply, particularly in major cities, comes from rentals. Ownership-focused construction has weakened significantly, even as increased rental stock helps balance some of the pressure. Slower population growth has contributed to the recent improvements in affordability, but since construction has slowed even more rapidly than demand, a softer market today could still leave us short when the demand inevitably rebounds.
From a legal and negotiation standpoint, the takeaway is clear: maintaining momentum in ownership housing construction is essential. Otherwise, we risk a deeper supply shortfall just as demand picks up again. Whether you’re buying, selling, or simply keeping an eye on market shifts, understanding these dynamics is key to making strategic, confident real estate decisions.
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